The Shrinking Safety: the data
At a group of high-visibility public flagships, admit rates have fallen fast. The main driver is application volume, not tougher standards. For an individual applicant, residency and intended major now say more about the real odds than the headline rate.
By the InGenius Prep research team · Read the full analysis
1. Volume is doing most of the work
Total Common App applications grew 154% since 2016–17, while the number of distinct applicants grew 70%. Students are sending far more applications each, and the most visible publics absorb a large share of that growth.
Michigan is the clearest case. Applications more than doubled while the entering class stayed roughly the same size, so the admit rate had to fall.
Michigan applications more than doubled (+107%) while the class stayed about the same size
X axis: entering class year. Dashed segments span years not reported. First-year enrollment held at roughly 7,000–7,300 throughout.
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| Entering class | Applications |
|---|---|
| Class of 2020 | 55,504 |
| Class of 2025 | 79,743 |
| Class of 2028 | 98,310 |
| Class of 2029 | 109,112 |
| Class of 2030 | 115,125 |
Source: University of Michigan figures compiled in The Shrinking Safety. Data: CSV.
2. Residency splits one school into two
Most flagships cap or target out-of-state enrollment. The result is two admissions processes behind one headline number. Georgia Tech admitted 30% of Georgia residents and 9% of nonresidents for Fall 2025.
The gap is not universal. Alabama admits both groups at similar rates, and Virginia Tech admitted out-of-state applicants at a higher rate than Virginians.
Residency changes the odds: in-state vs. out-of-state admit rates
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| School | In-state | Out-of-state | Cycle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Tech | 30% | 9% | Fall 2025 |
| UW–Madison | 56.4% | 40.3% | Fall 2025; domestic out-of-state |
| Georgia (UGA) | 42% | 28% | Fall 2025, approximate |
| Clemson | 52.92% | 40.41% | Fall 2025 |
| Alabama | 73.6% | 70.3% | 2025 |
| Virginia Tech | 47.3% | 58.7% | Class of 2029 |
Source: institutional releases compiled in The Shrinking Safety. Data: CSV.
3. Major adds a second gate
At schools that admit directly into a program, high-demand majors can be several times more selective than the campus overall.
Overall admit rate vs. a high-demand program at the same school
| School | Overall | Program | Program rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | 9% | Computer science | 3% |
| UCLA | 9% | Nursing | 1% |
| UC Berkeley | 11% | Computer science | ~6% |
| UIUC | 36.6% | Computer science | ~7.3% |
| Georgia Tech | 13.34% | College of Computing | ~9.7% |
| UC Irvine | 29% | Business | ~16% |
~ marks approximate or third-party figures. Sources: institutional releases and the San Francisco Chronicle, compiled in The Shrinking Safety.
What this means for a college list
- Judge each public by the admit rate for your residency and your intended major, not the headline figure.
- Some flagships still admit most applicants, including Missouri (78.5%) and Indiana Bloomington (78.2%) for Fall 2025.
- Honors colleges are a separate, often much more selective, admission.
Methods: figures are from institutional releases unless marked approximate. Rates are for first-year applicants in the cycle shown. The full analysis covers 20+ schools, honors colleges and test-optional effects.